AS/SC/MATH4930C.03F

Topics in Applied Statistics: Forecasting and Time Series

The study of forecasting is an important part of statistics with many practical applications to decision making in business. For example, forecasting a range of possible future values of an investment is a critical component of the management of pension funds. Time series also has many applications outside of business. For example, assessing the impact of change in a seat belt law or a gun law, can require a study of the time series of motor vehicle accidents or homicides.

This course will follow, as far as it can, a curriculum based on the expectations of the Society of Acturies for preparation for their examination in Time Series and Forecasting.

The text will be Bovas Abraham and Johannes Ledolter, Statistical Methods for Forecasting, (Wiley, 1983)

The final grade may be based on assignments (15%), a class test (35%), and a final examination (50%).