Last revised: September 1, 2011
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Georges Monette's Home PagePhone: 416-736-2100 ext. 77164 Office Hours:
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What plot do you (almost) see twice in each rotation?
2008-09 Statistical Consulting Service Seminars Gelman: Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models
2007-08 Statistical Consulting Service Seminars: Beyond Significance Testing
2005-06 Statistical Consulting Service Seminars on Regression and Causality
Interesting links for the SCS seminar on Bayesian methods:
"The best thing about being a statistician is that you get to play in everyone's backyard." John W. Tukey, who, incidentally, coined the terms 'software' and 'bit'.
"Once you know hierarchies exist, you see them everywhere" Ita Kreft and Jan de Leeuw (1998) "Introducing Multilevel Modeling"
"Once you tune into ellipses, you will begin to see them everywhere ..." James McMullan
"The best thing about being a statistician is that you get a license to poke your nose into everyone else's business." (??)
"Humanists believe that the world has a fixed number of mysteries, so that when one is solved, our sense of wonder is diminished. Scientists believe that the world has endless mysteries, so that when one is solved, there are always new ones to ponder." D. O. Hebb quoted by Steven Pinker
"Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." John W. Tukey, (1962), "The future of data analysis." Annals of Mathematical Statistics 33, 1-67.
"A bad answer to a good question may be far better than a good answer to a bad question." a graduate class paraphrasing Tukey's dictum.
"It is better to know some of the questions than all of the answers." James Thurber
"I have a lot of questions . . . but I don't know what they are." overheard at the end of what must have been an inspiring lecture
"The worst, i.e., most dangerous, feature of 'accepting the null hypothesis' is the giving up of explicit uncertainty . . . Mathematics can sometimes be put in such black-and-white terms, but our knowledge or belief about the external world never can." John W. Tukey. (1991). "The Philosophy of Multiple Comparisons." Statistical Science 6, 100--116.
"Where there is no uncertainty there cannot be truth." Feynman? or Bohr?: a strong endorsement for confidence intervals?
"Art is a lie that enables us to realize the truth." Pablo Picasso
At their best, graphics are instruments for reasoning. Edward Tufte, www.edwardtufte.com
"An elementary demonstration is one that requires no knowledge just an infinite amount of intelligence." -- Richard Feynman.
"All models are wrong but some are useful." George E. P. Box
"The business of the statistician is to catalyze the scientific learning process." George E. P. Box
"There are no routine statistical question; only questionable statistical routines." D.R. Cox
"We at York must give special emphasis to the humanizing of man, freeing him from those pressures which mechanize the mind, which make for routine thinking, which divorce thinking and feeling, which permit custom to dominate intelligence, which freeze awareness of the human spirit and its possibilities..." Murray G. Ross
"It is much more important to be clear than to be correct." Blair Wheaton
"It is better to be wrong than to be vague." Freeman Dyson
"Science may be described as the art of systematic over-simplification." Karl Popper
"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics." Mark Twain with attribution to Benjamin Disraeli
"Lies--damned lies--and statistics" Leonard Henry Courtney with attribution to a "Wise Statesman," possibly Disraeli [see http://www.york.ac.uk/depts/maths/histstat/lies.htm]
"Statistical thinking will one day be as necessary for efficient citizenship as the ability to read and write." S. Wilks attributing to H. G. Wells
"It is easy to lie with statistics. It is hard to tell the truth without it." Andrejs Dunkels
"Human History becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe." H. G. Wells
"Data analysis is an aid to thinking and not a replacement for." Richard Shillington
"Methodology should never be allowed to displace intelligence." [paraphrased from Lee Wilkinson, I think]
"Another thing about fit indices is that they are used all too often as substitutes for thinking. In most cases, statistical analysis should be not about determining the "best fitting" model according to a single numerical criterion. In any given research there hopefully are underlying substantive theory and knowledge, the research hopefully is guided by research questions and knowledge about control variables, there is a distinction between primary and secondary interest, a single research often has elements of hypothesis testing as well as exploration, etc. etc. Fit indices in the ?IC family are useful only as a secondary type of summary information, but research questions and existing knowledge are more important." Tom Snijders
"If you try to estimate everything, you will end up estimating nothing." [I forget who said this but I'd like to know!]
"Fishing for hypotheses is like throwing a dart at a wall and then drawing a target around it." Andrιe Monette
"When statistics are not based on strictly accurate calculations, they mislead instead of guide. The mind easily lets itself be taken in by the false appearance of exactitude which statistics retain in their mistakes, and confidently adopts errors clothed in the form of mathematical truth." Alexis de Tocqueville [With the benefit of a few centuries to reflect on this, we appreciate that the accuracy of the calculations is only one of many requirements to ensure that statistics guide and not mislead]
"Causal interpretation of the results of regression analysis of observational data is a risky business. The responsibility rests entirely on the shoulders of the researcher, because the shoulders of the statistical technique cannot carry such strong inferences." Jan de Leeuw.
"Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted." Albert Einstein
"If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence." Bertrand Russell
"Moral indignation is jealousy wearing a halo." H. G. Wells [what does this have to do with statistics?]
From the Globe & Mail, Social Studies column by Michael Kesterton, September 9, 2003:
Random: Washington-area teenagers have been overheard saying such things as: "Did you see that outfit she was wearing? That was so random!" "Who invited those random kids to this party?" "I never watch the news on TV. It's too, like, random." The adjective seems to mean "serendipitous," but is more value-neutral. "It's actually rather specific the way students use it," English teacher Patrick Welsh tells The Washington Post, adding "the brightest of the bright kids are the ones who tend to use it."
"I have a soft spot for secret
passageways, bookshelves that open into silence, staircases that
go down into a void, and hidden safes. I even have one myself, but
I won't tell you where. At the other end of the spectrum are
statistics which I hate with all my heart." Luis
Buρuel
"I believe that the artist doesn't
know what he does. I attach even more importance to the spectator
than to the artist." Marcel Duchamp
"What difference does it make to the dead, the orphans and the homeless, whether the mad destruction is wrought under the name of totalitarianism or the holy name of liberty or democracy?" Mahatma Gandhi (1869 - 1948), "Non-Violence in Peace and War"
"No problem is so big or so
complicated that it can't be run away from." Linus van
Pelt ( Peanuts )
"Natural Selection is a mechanism for generating an exceedingly high degree of improbability." Sir Ronald Fisher
"In times of change learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." Eric Hoffer
"Being
a statistician means never having to say you're certain" ??
"The methods of statistics turn art into science" paraphrased from
Arnold Zellner
"Statistics is an art struggling to be a science" Heather
Krause
"The
absence of evidence is not the evidence of absence" Carl Sagan
"Changing your mind is the only sure proof you can offer that you've got one" Richard P. Feynman quoting ??
"Ignorance
more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge. Charles Darwin, The Descent of Man
"Statisticians learn not be surprised by the improbable which is
usually probable only by the improbably improbable" ??
"Railing against collinearity is like railing against gravity" anonymous
referee.
"If you think you understand X that's a sure sign that you don't
understand X" a metaquote.
"Believe those who are seeking the truth. Doubt those who find
it." Andrι Gide
"If
you
amplify everything, you hear nothing." Jon Stewart
"Seek the company of those who seek the truth, and run away
from those who have found it." Vaclav Havel
"The scientist is not a person who gives the right answers, he is
one who asks the right questions." Claude Lιvi-Strauss
( Le Cru et le Cuit, 1964 ) (*)
"We are inclined to believe those whom we do not know because they
have never deceived us." Samuel Johnson
"Faith" is a fine
invention
When Gentlemen can see
But Microscopes are prudent
In an Emergency -- Emily Dickinson
"Correlation
does
not
imply
causation
but
it
does
waggle its eyebrows suggestively and gesture furtively while
mouthing 'look over there.' Randall Munroe, xkcd.com.
"OK! Correlation does not imply causation yada yada." Paul
Krugman
"... a primary objective in the design and analysis of
observational studies is to control, through sampling and
statistical adjustment, the possible biasing effects of those
confounding variables that can be measured: a primary objective of
in the evaluation of observational studies is to speculate about
the remaining biasing effects of those confounding variables that
cannot be [or: were not] measured." Donald B Rubin (Matched
Sampling for Causal Effects, 2006)
"Let us change our traditional attitude to the construction of
programs: Instead of imagining that our main task is to instruct a
computer what to do, let us concentrate rather on explaining to
humans what we want the computer to do." (Donald E. Knuth,
1984).(*)
"...academic administrative positions must be about both
leadership and management because one without the other leads to
no results or to trivial results." Sheila Embleton. For
a few reflections on academic governance that are both deep and
practical see a Y
File article.
Newtonbrook Secondary School, June 6, 2005: Slides and Handout
SCS Short Course on Mixed Models for Hierarchical and Longitudinal Data,February 2001
MATH 3034: Applied Categorical Data Analysis, February - May 2001
Fall/Winter 97-98
Summer 1997
1995-96:
JSTOR: access to a large collection of journals including Statistical Science and Annals of Statistics
Software
Hmisc by Frank E. Farrell Jr
Lists of lists:
Archives: S-news (before 98), Recent S-news, Ed-Stat.
WinBUGS Practical MCMC methods for applied statistics.
Listing of statistical resources at Monash U.
American Statistical Association:
Jim Box's page on non-academic jobs and employers in statistics (mainly U.S).
Information on career days at the University of Virginia: 1997 and 1996.
On virus hoaxes: U.S. Department of Energy Computer Incident Advisory Capability. McAfee list of recent viruses
R source file of miscellaneous functions: gm.R
Answer to the question: what plot do you (almost)
see twice in each rotation?
The blue plane, which is kept almost on edge as the points rotate,
is the graph of the simple regression of Health on Weight. The
ellipse in the horizontal plane is the data ellipse for the two
predictors, Weight and Height. The blue line in the horizontal
plane is the regression line predicting Height from Weight.
The yellow plane is the graph of the multiple regression of Health
on both Height and Weight.Twice in every rotation, we look down
the intersection of the blue plane and yellow plane. At that same
moment, the blue line in the horizontal plane points directly at
us. A linear shear transformation of the blue plane can make
it horizontal. Then the horizontal displacement of
points, to the right or the left of the vertical plane that goes
through the blue line and the intersection of the blue plane and
the yellow plane, is proportional to the residual in the
regression of Height on Weight. The vertical displacement of
points above and below the blue plane is the residual of Health on
Weight. Thus, we are looking at the Added Variable Plot (or the
Partial Residual Leverage Plot) for the addition of Height to
Weight in predicting Health.
So the short anwer is: an Added Variable Plot.
e-mail:Georges.Monette@mathstat.yorku.ca
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
York University
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3, Canada
