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# York University

## AK/AS/SC/MATH 2030.03AF, Fall 1999

# ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

Course Outline

### Prerequisites:

Single variable calculus (MATH 1300.03/1310.03 or
equivalent).
### Degree credit exclusions:

MATH2030.06

(Prior to 1993-1994, the course number MATH2030 was assigned to a 6
credit introductory statistics course, which overlapped significantly with the
contents of our course)
### Instructor:

Tom Salisbury
- email: salt@yorku.ca
- Office: N625 Ross Building
- Phone: (416) 736-5250 (via Math Dept.)

(416) 736-2100 extension 33938 (via York switchboard)
- Fax: (416) 736-5757

### Lectures:

MWF 8:30-9:20 in CLH K

Atkinson students should note that Faculty of Arts calendar dates
apply to this course.
### Office hours:

Monday 10:30-11:20, Friday 12:30-1:20.

If you need to see me outside these hours, you are welcome to drop by my
office. If I am able to talk to you then, I will; if not we can arrange
another time. Or you can e-mail to arrange an appointment.
### Text:

*Probability*
by Pitman; 1st edition, Springer Verlag 1993.

We will cover the first four chapters in detail. If time permits we will cover
selected topics from the last two chapters.
### Problem session:

Thursday, 12:30-1:20, in N501 Ross (starts 2nd week of classes)
### TA:

Adrienne Groulx
### Grading:

- 25% Midterm exam (Wednesday October 27)
- 10% Quizzes (2 for 20 minutes each, on Oct 6 and Nov 17)
- 15% Assignments (roughly weekly)
- 50% Final exam
- I will mark the midterm and finals. The TA will mark the
quizzes and assignments. Restrictions on TA hours mean that only a
selection of the problems will be marked.
- No late assignments will normally be accepted, but I will
drop everybody's worst assignment mark.
- Assignments may be handed in in class
or dropped in the course mailbox (one of the brown boxes by the
north elevator of the 5th floor of Ross will soon have our course
number on it).
- All assignment, quizz, and exam marks should be interpreted
as raw scores and not 'percentages'. Cutoffs will be announced for
converting midterm scores into letter grades. The distribution of
scores will be announced for both the midterm and the quizzes.

### Course description:

Probability theory is the mathematical underpinning of
Statistics, as well as of many areas of physics, finance, and other
disciplines. The mathematics of probability will be the topic of this course.
The course can be followed by other courses in statistics or
application areas, or the mathematics can be pursued further, through more
advanced courses in stochastic processes or probability theory. Students
contemplating taking actuarial examinations are strongly advised
to take this course.
The course will introduce the basic
mathematical model of randomness, and will examine the fundamental notions of
independence and conditional probability. Calculations will be based both on
combinatorial methods and on integral calculus. A variety of concrete
distributions will be studied (Normal, Binomial, Poisson, etc, together
with their multivariate generalizations), using density functions, distribution
functions, and moment-generating functions. Prior exposure to statistics or
combinatorics would be useful, but is not assumed.